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Covid-19: Europa vulnerabile, possibili altri 300 mila morti

Roma, 22 novembre 2021 – La pandemia in Europa può causare ancora almeno 300 mila morti e altri 900 mila ricoveri. È la stima contenuta in uno studio condotto da ricercatori della London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine e pubblicato in preprint sul database medRxiv. La ricerca ha voluto calcolare qual è il potenziale carico residuo di Covid in 19 paesi europei: quante persone, cioè, possono ancora ammalarsi, avere bisogno di un ricovero in ospedale o morire. Per farlo ha incrociato le dinamiche delle passate ondate epidemiche con diversi dati relativi alla suscettibilità della popolazione al virus (per esempio le persone immuni perché già ammalate di Covid o vaccinate) e sulla sua vulnerabilità (per esempio l’età avanzata). Secondo lo studio, nei 19 paesi indagati la pandemia può causare 300 mila morti e 900 mila ricoveri prima che SARS-CoV-2 diventi endemico.
Esiste però una grande variabilità. L’Inghilterra, per esempio, è secondo lo studio il Paese meno vulnerabili grazie alla sinergia tra diversi fattori: l’inizio precoce della campagna vaccinale con alti tassi di copertura vaccinale raggiunti nelle fasce di età più vulnerabili a cui si somma l’alto tasso di infezioni durante le precedenti ondate. L’Italia presenta una situazione simile. È speculare invece il caso della Romania che è la più a rischio. In termini assoluti è Germania il Paese che potrebbe pagare il prezzo più alto: sono possibili 280 mila ricoveri e 115 mila decessi. Quello ipotizzato dai ricercatori è ‘worst-case scenario’, in cui, però, non si tiene conto di diversi fattori che potrebbero avere un effetto diretto sul numero di nuove infezioni, come il calo dell’immunità indotta dai vaccini. In ogni caso, concludono gli scienziati, “è necessario continuare con gli interventi non farmacologici e bisogna sforzarsi per ottenere un’elevata copertura vaccinale a breve termine per limitare gli esiti gravi di Covid-19”.

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