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Covid: efficacia dei vaccini scende al 20% dopo 5 mesi

Roma, 9 dicembre 2021 – La protezione contro le infezioni da SARS-CoV-2 offerta dai vaccini a mRNA comincia a scendere già un mese dopo la somministrazione della seconda dose fino ad arrivare a poco più del 20% dopo il quinto mese. Anche dopo questo termine resta però alta l’efficacia contro le conseguenze più gravi di Covid-19. Uno studio coordinato dal Weill Cornell Medicine di Doha, in Qatar, pubblicato sul New England Journal of Medicine ricostruisce la progressiva perdita dell’immunità al coronavirus al passare del tempo.

La ricerca si basa sui dati della popolazione del Qatar, Stato con una delle più intense attività di testing al mondo: si stima che ogni settimana il 5% della popolazione qatariota si sottoponga a tampone molecolare e che il 75% dei casi di Covid identificati fino a oggi non siano emersi per la comparsa di sintomi ma grazie all’attività di test di routine. Lo studio ha valutato i casi di infezione insorti tra il 21 dicembre 2020 e il 5 settembre scorso su quasi 950mila persone che avevano ricevuto una o due dosi di vaccino a mRNA. Sulla base di questa analisi, i ricercatori hanno concluso che la protezione offerta dal vaccino contro l’infezione da SARS-CoV-2 è trascurabile nelle prime due settimane dopo l’inoculazione, arriva al 36,8% nella terza settimana fino a raggiungere il picco del 77,5% dopo un mese. Da quel momento l’efficacia comincia a scendere: al 69,6% dopo tre mesi, al 51,7% dopo quattro, per crollare al 22,5% al quinto mese. Livello che, pur con qualche oscillazione, mantiene fino al settimo mese, quando finisce il periodo di osservazione dello studio. Diverso è il caso della protezione contro le forme severe di Covid-19 e contro la morte: dopo tre settimane arriva al 66,1%, raggiunge il picco del 96,8% dopo due mesi e poi comincia gradualmente a calare raggiungendo 94,3% al terzo mese, l’83,7% al quarto, il 55,6% dopo il settimo mese.

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