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Coronavirus: metà rischio d’infezione per gli under 20

Roma, 17 giugno 2020 – Le persone con meno di 20 anni hanno metà del rischio di contrarre il Covid-19. Inoltre in poco meno dell’80% dei casi l’infezione risulta asintomatica. E’ quanto ha stabilito uno studio della London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, pubblicato dalla rivista Nature Medicine. Sulla base di questi dati i ricercatori traggono la conclusione che la chiusura delle scuole potrebbe avere un effetto minore rispetto ad altre malattie respiratore sul controllo dell’epidemia. Il calcolo si basa sui dati dei contagi in sei paesi, Cina, Italia, Giappone, Singapore, Canada e Corea del Sud, utilizzando anche le stime di altre ricerche sui tassi di trasmissione e sulla gravità dei sintomi in base all’età. La proporzione di asintomatici è risultata del 79%, maggiore di quella della popolazione generale, che è del 69%, mentre il rischio di infezione è risultato metà nei giovani rispetto a quello degli over 20. Sulla base dei risultati del modello è stata poi simulato l’andamento dell’epidemia in 146 paesi del mondo per valutare l’effetto di una chiusura delle scuole di tre mesi. “Per infezioni come l’influenza abbiamo trovato che la chiusura delle scuole diminuisce il picco dell’incidenza del 17-35%, ritardandolo da 10 a 89 giorni – scrivono -. Per il Covid l’incidenza cala del 10-19%, e il ritardo è di 1-6 giorni”. Il modello, spiegano gli autori, ha immaginato diversi scenari con un diverso tasso di trasmissione da parte dei bambini.

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